The Prediction Markets

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

5.3% or above 99%

Next is 5.35% or above at 63%. The venues differ most on 5.5 (Polymarket 17.9%, Kalshi 29%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
5.3% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.3% or above
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.35% or above
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 28s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.35% or above
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
26¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.4
34.5%
Polymarket 32%polled, 28s agoKalshi 42%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.4%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.4% or above
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

5.5
20.6%
Polymarket 17.9%polled, 28s agoKalshi 29%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 18.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $538 (5.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5%
Last price
17.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.6¢
Sell Yes
17.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$538 (5.38x)
Volume
$220K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$507
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18.6¢.

5.45% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.45% or above
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
5.7%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.7%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
11.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.0%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.0%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$101K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5.3% or above
  • 5.35% or above
  • 5.4

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 5.3% or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". 5.3% or above leads at 99%. Next is 5.35% or above at 63%. $1.1M has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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