Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
5.3% or above 99%
Next is 4.75% or above at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
5.3% or above99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 48s agoNo ask5.3% or above99%Kalshi 99%polled, 48s ago
5.3% or above
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 48s ago
No ask
5.3% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 48s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.3% or above
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $7K
4.75% or above82%Not listed82%82¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 48s ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)4.75% or above82%Kalshi 82%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
4.75% or above
82%
Not listed
82%
82¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
4.75% or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $12K
4.75%79.5%79.5%79¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed80¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $125 (1.25x)4.75%79.5%Polymarket 79.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.75%
79.5%
79.5%
79¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
80¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.75%
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.75%
- Last price
- 79.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $240
4.80%66%66%65¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed67¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $149 (1.49x)4.80%66%Polymarket 66%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.80%
66%
66%
65¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
67¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.80%
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.80%
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
- Volume
- $1K
5% or above64%Not listed64%63¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 48s ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)5% or above64%Kalshi 64%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
5% or above
64%
Not listed
64%
63¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $11K
4.85%63.5%63.5%63¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)4.85%63.5%Polymarket 63.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
4.85%
63.5%
63.5%
63¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
4.85%
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.85%
- Last price
- 63.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $261
4.90%55.5%55.5%45¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed66¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $152 (1.52x)4.90%55.5%Polymarket 55.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
4.90%
55.5%
55.5%
45¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
66¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
4.90%
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.90%
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.1% or above47%Not listed47%40¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 48s ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)5.1% or above47%Kalshi 47%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
5.1% or above
47%
Not listed
47%
40¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
5.1% or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $10K
5.00%43.5%43.5%42¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed45¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $222 (2.22x)5.00%43.5%Polymarket 43.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.00%
43.5%
43.5%
42¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
45¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.00%
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.00%
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.15% or above43%Not listed43%40¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 48s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)5.15% or above43%Kalshi 43%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
5.15% or above
43%
Not listed
43%
40¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
5.15% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $12K
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
5.7% or above41%Not listed41%34¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 6 min ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)5.7% or above41%Kalshi 41%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
5.7% or above
41%
Not listed
41%
34¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
5.7% or above
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.7% or above
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.25% or above35%Not listed35%34¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 48s ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)5.25% or above35%Kalshi 35%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.25% or above
35%
Not listed
35%
34¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.25% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.45% or above34%Not listed34%8¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 48s ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)5.45% or above34%Kalshi 34%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.45% or above
34%
Not listed
34%
8¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.45% or above
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.45% or above
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.10%33.5%33.5%32¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)5.10%33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
5.10%
33.5%
33.5%
32¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
5.10%
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.10%
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.4% or above33%Not listed33%10¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 48s ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)5.4% or above33%Kalshi 33%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.4% or above
33%
Not listed
33%
10¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.4% or above
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.4% or above
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $677
5.75% or above29.4%Not listed38%— bid, 39¢ askpolled, 6 min ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)5.75% or above29.4%Kalshi 7%polled, 48s agoKalshi 38%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.75% or above
29.4%
Not listed
38%
— bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.75% or above
29.4%
Kalshi 7%polled, 48s agoKalshi 38%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $732
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.35% or above28%Not listed28%11¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 48s ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)5.35% or above28%Kalshi 28%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
5.35% or above
28%
Not listed
28%
11¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
5.35% or above
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.35% or above
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $3K
5.5% or above24.5%Not listed29%12¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 48s ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)5.5% or above24.5%Kalshi 23%polled, 48s agoKalshi 29%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
5.5% or above
24.5%
Not listed
29%
12¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
5.5% or above
24.5%
Kalshi 23%polled, 48s agoKalshi 29%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $507
5.8% or above22%Not listed22%19¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 6 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)5.8% or above22%Kalshi 22%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
5.8% or above
22%
Not listed
22%
19¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
5.8% or above
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.8% or above
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.20%20%20%19¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)5.20%20%Polymarket 20%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.20%
20%
20%
19¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.20%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.20%
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.30%8.5%8.5%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)5.30%8.5%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5.30%
8.5%
8.5%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5.30%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.30%
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $3K
5.50%4.3%4.3%3.4¢ bid, 5.1¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed5.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)5.50%4.3%Polymarket 4.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
5.50%
4.3%
4.3%
3.4¢ bid, 5.1¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
5.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
5.50%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.50%
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,961 (19.6x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.40%3.4%3.4%1.9¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)5.40%3.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
5.40%
3.4%
3.4%
1.9¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
5.40%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.40%
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $3K
6% or above3%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 48s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)6% or above3%Kalshi 3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
6% or above
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
6% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.65%2.8%2.8%1.5¢ bid, 4.1¢ askpolled, 48s agoNot listed4.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)5.65%2.8%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
5.65%
2.8%
2.8%
1.5¢ bid, 4.1¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
Not listed
4.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
5.65%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.65%
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,439 (24.4x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 5.3% or above
- 4.75% or above
- 4.75%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list 5.3% or above for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". 5.3% or above leads at 99%. Next is 4.75% or above at 82%. $166K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More economics markets
See all economics markets- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?Yes94.2%$31.5M traded
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Fed maintains rate91%$14.8M traded
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?Exactly 0 cuts93.7%$11.0M traded
- How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?115.01 or above39.8%$9.3M traded
- Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA57.5%$8.9M traded
- S&P close price end of 2026?7,800 to 7,999.9924%$8.0M traded