The Prediction Markets

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$280K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

5.3% or above 99%

Next is 4.75% or above at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
5.3% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.3% or above
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.75% or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.10%
52.6%
Polymarket 52.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 54.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $183 (1.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.10%
Last price
52.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
54.6¢
Sell Yes
50.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$183 (1.83x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.35% or above
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.35% or above
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% or above
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.15% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.4% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.4% or above
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Kalshi
5.25% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.7% or above
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.7% or above
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
5.75% or above
22.5%
Kalshi 10%polled, 27s agoKalshi 27%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$693
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.5% or above
22.3%
Kalshi 20%polled, 27s agoKalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$507
Trade this on Kalshi
5.25%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.25%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.8% or above
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.8% or above
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.45% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.45% or above
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
6% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5.3% or above
  • 4.75% or above
  • 5% or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 5.3% or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". 5.3% or above leads at 99%. Next is 4.75% or above at 82%. $280K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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