The Prediction Markets

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$53K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

5.08 13.9%

Next is 5.1% or above at 12%. The venues differ most on 5.11 (Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 4%), a 5.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
5.08
13.9%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.08%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.08% or above
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

5.1% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.09% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.09% or above
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.07% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.07% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.11
6.8%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.11%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.11% or above
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

5.14
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.14%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.14% or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

5.28% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.28% or above
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.31% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.31% or above
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.32% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.32% or above
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.17
5.3%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.17%
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.17% or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Show 21 more outcomes
5.12% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.12% or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.15% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.16% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.16% or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Kalshi
5.25Arb
4.9%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.25%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4.3¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

5.2
4.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.20%
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.2% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$801
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

5.45%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.45%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
5.13% or above
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.13% or above
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Kalshi
5.3
3.6%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.30%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.3% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

5.18% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.18% or above
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
5.27% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.27% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
5.29% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.29% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
5.33% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.33% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Kalshi
5.35
1.9%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.35%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.35% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

5.19% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.19% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
5.21% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.21% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$578
Trade this on Kalshi
5.22% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.22% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
5.23% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.23% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
5.24% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.24% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
5.26% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.26% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Kalshi
5.34% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.34% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.36% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.36% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 5.25 on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 4.3¢ (30 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5.08
  • 5.1% or above
  • 5.09% or above

Live prices for 5.08

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?". 5.08 leads at 13.9%. Next is 5.1% or above at 12%. $53K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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