The Prediction Markets

How high will HYPE get in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
54 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

76 74.5%

Next is Below $75.00 at 73%. The venues differ most on 100 (Polymarket 4.1%, Kalshi 7%), a 2.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 57 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
76
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
76
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $75.00
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $75.00
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
80
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
80
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
72
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
72
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
84
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
84
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Polymarket
96
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
96
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $70.00
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70.00
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$470
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $72.50
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $72.50
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
88
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
88
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
68
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
68
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Below $67.50
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $67.50
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
92
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
92
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $65.00
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65.00
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $62.50
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $62.50
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
64
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
64
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $97.50
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $97.50
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $102.50
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $102.50
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $107.50
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $107.50
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
100
5%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 54 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
100
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100.00
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 54 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Above $105.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $105.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $42.50
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $42.50
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
60
4.6%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 54 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
60
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $60.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 57 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Below $57.50
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $57.50
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
104
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
104
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $52.50
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $52.50
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $55.00
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $55.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
112
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
112
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $45.00
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $45.00
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $47.50
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $47.50
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $50.00
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 57 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $50.00
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 57 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
108
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
108
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 76
  • Below $75.00
  • 80

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 76 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will HYPE get in October?". 76 leads at 74.5%. Next is Below $75.00 at 73%. $44K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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