The Prediction Markets

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$2.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 4.5% 22.7%

Next is Above 4.5% at 14.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 4.5%
22.7%
Kalshi 22.7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 22.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $441 (4.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4.5%
Last price
22.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.7¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$441 (4.41x)
Volume
$367K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$232K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$342K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 5.0%
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5.0%
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$117K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Above 6%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 8%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Above 8%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 10%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Above 10%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 5.5%
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5.5%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 6.5%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 6.5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 7.0%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 7.0%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 6.0%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 6.0%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 4.5%
  • Above 4.5%
  • Above 5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 4.5% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will inflation get in 2026?". At least 4.5% leads at 22.7%. Next is Above 4.5% at 14.5%. $2.1M has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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