The Prediction Markets

How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Closes
Oct 30, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

5.13% or above 50%

Next is 4.93% or above at 45%. The venues differ most on 5.15 (Polymarket 7.2%, Kalshi 50%), a 43-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
5.13% or above
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.13% or above
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
4.93% or above
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.93% or above
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$923
Trade this on Kalshi
5.15
28.6%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 53s agoKalshi 50%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.15%
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

4.98% or above
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
4.98% or above
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi
5.08% or above
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.08% or above
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$621
Trade this on Kalshi
5.02% or above
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.02% or above
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$966
Trade this on Kalshi
4.89%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.89%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.86%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.86%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.99% or above
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
4.99% or above
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$446
Trade this on Kalshi
5.22% or above
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.22% or above
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$727
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 24 more outcomes
4.96% or above
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.96% or above
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Kalshi
4.97% or above
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
4.97% or above
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
4.95
14.9%
Polymarket 13%polled, 53s agoKalshi 19%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.95%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4.95% or above
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

4.94% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.94% or above
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Kalshi
5.16% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.16% or above
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
5.03% or above
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.03% or above
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.17% or above
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.17% or above
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
5.04% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.04% or above
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$488
Trade this on Kalshi
5.18% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.18% or above
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
5.2% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.2% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$331
Trade this on Kalshi
5.19% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.19% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
5.06% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.06% or above
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
5
9.9%
Polymarket 7%polled, 53s agoKalshi 16%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.00%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$978
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

5.05
9.9%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 53s agoKalshi 24%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.05%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.05% or above
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

5.07% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.07% or above
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
5.21% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.21% or above
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.92%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.92%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.1
7.5%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 53s agoKalshi 5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.10%
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$995
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

5.09% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.09% or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
5.11% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.11% or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
5.12% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53s ago
Kalshi
Contract
5.12% or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
5.14% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.14% or above
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.25%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.25%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.01% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.01% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5.13% or above
  • 4.93% or above
  • 5.15

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 5.13% or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". 5.13% or above leads at 50%. Next is 4.93% or above at 45%. $34K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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