Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
30,800 or above 99%
Next is 31,000 or above at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
30,800 or above99%99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3 min agoNo ask30,800 or above99%Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
30,800 or above
99%
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3 min ago
No ask
30,800 or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 30,800 or above
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $43K
31,000 or above99%99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3 min agoNo ask31,000 or above99%Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
31,000 or above
99%
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3 min ago
No ask
31,000 or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 31,000 or above
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $21K
31,200 or above99%99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3 min agoNo ask31,200 or above99%Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
31,200 or above
99%
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3 min ago
No ask
31,200 or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 31,200 or above
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $34K
31,400 or above30%30%28¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 3 min ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)31,400 or above30%Kalshi 30%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
31,400 or above
30%
30%
28¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
31,400 or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 31,400 or above
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $15K
31,600 or above30%30%30¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 3 min ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)31,600 or above30%Kalshi 30%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
31,600 or above
30%
30%
30¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
31,600 or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 31,600 or above
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $9K
32,000 or above27%27%25¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 3 min ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)32,000 or above27%Kalshi 27%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
32,000 or above
27%
27%
25¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
32,000 or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 32,000 or above
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $54K
31,800 or above23%23%21¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 3 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)31,800 or above23%Kalshi 23%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
31,800 or above
23%
23%
21¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
31,800 or above
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 31,800 or above
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $10K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 30,800 or above
- 31,000 or above
- 31,200 or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.035 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?". 30,800 or above leads at 99%. Next is 31,000 or above at 99%. $186K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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