The Prediction Markets

How high will the S&P get this year?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.4M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

8,000 or above 57.9%

Next is 8,200 or above at 21.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
8,000 or above
57.9%
Kalshi 57.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $173 (1.73x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,000 or above
Last price
57.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57.9¢
Sell Yes
55.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$173 (1.73x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Kalshi
8,200 or above
21.2%
Kalshi 21.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $472 (4.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,200 or above
Last price
21.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21.2¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$472 (4.72x)
Volume
$200K
Trade this on Kalshi
8,400 or above
11.2%
Kalshi 11.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,400 or above
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$125K
Trade this on Kalshi
8,600 or above
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,600 or above
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$110K
Trade this on Kalshi
8,800 or above
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,800 or above
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
9,000 or above
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
9,000 or above
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$96K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 8,000 or above
  • 8,200 or above
  • 8,400 or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.035 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will the S&P get this year?". 8,000 or above leads at 57.9%. Next is 8,200 or above at 21.2%. $1.4M has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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