The Prediction Markets

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Closes
Jan 4, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$172K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

38.4 to 38.6 48%

Next is 38.7 to 38.9 at 27%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
38.4 to 38.6
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
38.4 to 38.6
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
38.7 to 38.9
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
38.7 to 38.9
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
47%
14.4%
Polymarket 14.4%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 28.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $356 (3.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
47%
Last price
14.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$356 (3.56x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Polymarket
38.1 to 38.3
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
38.1 to 38.3
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
46%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 18.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $532 (5.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
46%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
39.0 to 39.2
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
39.0 to 39.2
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
48%
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
48%
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
44%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
44%
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
50%
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
50%
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
49%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
49%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
45%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
45%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 37.4%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 37.4%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
37.8 to 38.0
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
37.8 to 38.0
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
39.3 to 39.5
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
39.3 to 39.5
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 39.5
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 39.5
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 37.8
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 37.8
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: natesilver.net
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: RealClearPolitics, VoteHub

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 38.4 to 38.6
  • 38.7 to 38.9
  • 47%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 38.4 to 38.6 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?". 38.4 to 38.6 leads at 48%. Next is 38.7 to 38.9 at 27%. $172K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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