The Prediction Markets

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Closes
Jan 4, 2030, in 39 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 5% 92%

Next is Above 6% at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 5%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6%
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6%
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$957
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 5%
  • Above 6%
  • Above 7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will unemployment get before 2030?". Above 5% leads at 92%. Next is Above 6% at 87%. $17K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2030.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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