The Prediction Markets

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$1.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 4.5% 12%

Next is Above 17% at 5.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.5%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17%
5.3%
Kalshi 5.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
7.0%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.0%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.8%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.0%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.0%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$157K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 13.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $752 (7.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.3¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$752 (7.52x)
Volume
$344K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8%
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9%
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10%
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20%
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Above 5.5%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15%
2.8%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
10.0%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.0%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6.5%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6%
1.7%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$221K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12%
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7%
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$119K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.0%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.5%
  • Above 17%
  • 7.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.5% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". Above 4.5% leads at 12%. Next is Above 17% at 5.3%. $1.4M has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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