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What the markets expect
104.51 or above 51%
Next is 104.01 or above at 41%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
104.51 or above51%51%41¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 1 min ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)104.51 or above51%Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
104.51 or above
51%
51%
41¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
104.51 or above
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 104.51 or above
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $3K
104.01 or above41%41%41¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 1 min ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)104.01 or above41%Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
104.01 or above
41%
41%
41¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
104.01 or above
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 104.01 or above
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $3K
105.01 or above33%33%33¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 1 min ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)105.01 or above33%Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
105.01 or above
33%
33%
33¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
105.01 or above
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 105.01 or above
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $5K
106.01 or above30%30%29¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 1 min ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)106.01 or above30%Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
106.01 or above
30%
30%
29¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
106.01 or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 106.01 or above
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $290
105.51 or above27%27%27¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 1 min ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)105.51 or above27%Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
105.51 or above
27%
27%
27¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
105.51 or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 105.51 or above
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $456
108.01 or above20%20%— bid, 29¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)108.01 or above20%Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
108.01 or above
20%
20%
— bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
108.01 or above
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 108.01 or above
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $6
108.51 or above19%19%— bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)108.51 or above19%Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
108.51 or above
19%
19%
— bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
108.51 or above
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 108.51 or above
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $249
107.01 or above18%18%8¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 1 min ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)107.01 or above18%Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
107.01 or above
18%
18%
8¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
107.01 or above
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 107.01 or above
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $418
109.51 or above16%16%15¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)109.51 or above16%Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
109.51 or above
16%
16%
15¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
109.51 or above
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 109.51 or above
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $365
109.01 or above14%14%— bid, 26¢ askpolled, 1 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)109.01 or above14%Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
109.01 or above
14%
14%
— bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
109.01 or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 109.01 or above
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $122
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
106.51 or above13%13%2¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 min ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)106.51 or above13%Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
106.51 or above
13%
13%
2¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
106.51 or above
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 106.51 or above
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $38
107.51 or above13%13%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)107.51 or above13%Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
107.51 or above
13%
13%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
107.51 or above
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 107.51 or above
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $18
110.01 or above5%5%— bid, 23¢ askpolled, 1 min ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)110.01 or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
110.01 or above
5%
5%
— bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
110.01 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 110.01 or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $252
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ICE
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 104.51 or above
- 104.01 or above
- 105.01 or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How high will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?". 104.51 or above leads at 51%. Next is 104.01 or above at 41%. $51K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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