What are the odds of Below 4.9% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.9% is currently priced at 81.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.8% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.8% is currently priced at 61% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.7% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.7% is currently priced at 39.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.6% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.6% is currently priced at 20.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.4% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.4% is currently priced at 14.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.3% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.3% is currently priced at 13.6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.5% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.5% is currently priced at 12.7% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.1% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.1% is currently priced at 3.4% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 3.9% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 3.9% is currently priced at 3.2% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Below 4.2% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??

Below 4.2% is currently priced at 2.6% in prediction markets.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Closes: Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded: $424K
Venues: Polymarket
Prices updated: just now

What the markets expect

Below 4.9% 81.5%

Next is Below 4.8% at 61%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Best Yes price

Below 4.9%

81.5%

81¢ bid, 82¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

82¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $122 (1.22x)

Below 4.9%

81.5%

Polymarket 81.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.9%
Last price: 81.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 82¢
Sell Yes: 81¢
$100 on Yes pays: $122 (1.22x)

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.8%

61%

60¢ bid, 62¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

62¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $161 (1.61x)

Below 4.8%

61%

Polymarket 61%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.8%
Last price: 61%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 62¢
Sell Yes: 60¢
$100 on Yes pays: $161 (1.61x)

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.7%

39.5%

38¢ bid, 41¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

41¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $244 (2.44x)

Below 4.7%

39.5%

Polymarket 39.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.7%
Last price: 39.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 41¢
Sell Yes: 38¢
$100 on Yes pays: $244 (2.44x)
Volume: $20K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.6%

20.5%

20¢ bid, 21¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

21¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $476 (4.76x)

Below 4.6%

20.5%

Polymarket 20.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.6%
Last price: 20.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 21¢
Sell Yes: 20¢
$100 on Yes pays: $476 (4.76x)
Volume: $33K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.4%

14.5%

14¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

15¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Below 4.4%

14.5%

Polymarket 14.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.4%
Last price: 14.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 14¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $25K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.3%

13.6%

11.7¢ bid, 15.4¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

15.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $649 (6.49x)

Below 4.3%

13.6%

Polymarket 13.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $649 (6.49x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.3%
Last price: 13.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 15.4¢
Sell Yes: 11.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $649 (6.49x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.5%

12.7%

12.1¢ bid, 13.3¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

13.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $752 (7.52x)

Below 4.5%

12.7%

Polymarket 12.7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 13.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $752 (7.52x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.5%
Last price: 12.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 13.3¢
Sell Yes: 12.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $752 (7.52x)
Volume: $21K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.1%

3.4%

2.1¢ bid, 4.6¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

4.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)

Below 4.1%

3.4%

Polymarket 3.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.1%
Last price: 3.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.6¢
Sell Yes: 2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,174 (21.7x)
Volume: $13K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 3.9%

3.2%

1.4¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

4.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)

Below 3.9%

3.2%

Polymarket 3.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 3.9%
Last price: 3.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,041 (20.4x)
Volume: $57K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 4.2%

2.6%

1.6¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

3.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Below 4.2%

2.6%

Polymarket 2.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 4.2%
Last price: 2.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.6¢
Sell Yes: 1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,778 (27.8x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 7 more outcomes

Below 3.6%

1.2¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

2.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)

Below 3.6%

Polymarket 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 3.6%
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2.8¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,571 (35.7x)
Volume: $13K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 2.0%

1.9%

0.5¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

3.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)

Below 2.0%

1.9%

Polymarket 1.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 2.0%
Last price: 1.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,030 (30.3x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 3.8%

1.8%

1.2¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

2.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)

Below 3.8%

1.8%

Polymarket 1.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 3.8%
Last price: 1.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2.4¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $4,167 (41.7x)
Volume: $65K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 3.0%

1.8%

0.8¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

2.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)

Below 3.0%

1.8%

Polymarket 1.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 3.0%
Last price: 1.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,704 (37.0x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 1.0%

1.5%

0.9¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Below 1.0%

1.5%

Polymarket 1.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 1.0%
Last price: 1.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $41K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 3.7%

1.5%

1.1¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

1.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)

Below 3.7%

1.5%

Polymarket 1.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 3.7%
Last price: 1.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1.8¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,556 (55.6x)
Volume: $38K

Trade this on Polymarket

Below 3.5%

1.2%

0.7¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask

polled, 46s ago

1.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)

Below 3.5%

1.2%

Polymarket 1.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Below 3.5%
Last price: 1.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,882 (58.8x)
Volume: $44K

Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Below 4.9%
Below 4.8%
Below 4.7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". Below 4.9% leads at 81.5%. Next is Below 4.8% at 61%. $424K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all politics markets

What the markets expect

Odds by venue

Who resolves this market

How the odds have moved

Order books

Polymarket

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

More politics markets