The Prediction Markets

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$1.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

4.75% or above 82%

Next is Below 4.95% at 67.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
4.75% or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 4.95%
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.95%
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 4.90%
54.7%
Polymarket 54.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 58.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $170 (1.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.90%
Last price
54.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
58.9¢
Sell Yes
50.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$170 (1.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.85%
53.3%
Polymarket 53.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $178 (1.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.85%
Last price
53.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56.2¢
Sell Yes
50.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$178 (1.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.1% or above
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.15% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.25% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.5% or above
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
6,300 or below
10.8%
Kalshi 10.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,300 or below
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$227K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
6,000 or below
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,000 or below
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$154K
Trade this on Kalshi
6,200 or below
7.4%
Kalshi 7.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,200 or below
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.75% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Kalshi
6,100 or below
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,100 or below
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Kalshi
5,900 or below
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
5,900 or below
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$359K
Trade this on Kalshi
6% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
6% or higher
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or higher
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance, U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.75% or above
  • Below 4.95%
  • 5% or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 4.75% or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?". 4.75% or above leads at 82%. Next is Below 4.95% at 67.5%. $1.0M has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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