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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Below 4.70% 100%
Next is 5.3% or above at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Below 4.70%100%100%99.9¢ bid, — askpolled, 44s agoNot listedNo askBelow 4.70%100%Polymarket 100%polled, 44s ago
Below 4.70%
100%
100%
99.9¢ bid, — ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
No ask
Below 4.70%
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 44s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.70%
- Last price
- 100%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99.9¢
- Volume
- $6K
5.3% or above99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 44s agoNo ask5.3% or above99%Kalshi 99%polled, 44s ago
5.3% or above
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 44s ago
No ask
5.3% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 44s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.3% or above
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $7K
4.75% or above82%Not listed82%82¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 44s ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)4.75% or above82%Kalshi 82%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.75% or above
82%
Not listed
82%
82¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.75% or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $12K
Below 4.60%75.5%75.5%74¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed77¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Below 4.60%75.5%Polymarket 75.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Below 4.60%
75.5%
75.5%
74¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
77¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Below 4.60%
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.60%
- Last price
- 75.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $3K
Below 4.50%70%70%63¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed77¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Below 4.50%70%Polymarket 70%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Below 4.50%
70%
70%
63¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
77¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Below 4.50%
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.50%
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $3K
5% or above64%Not listed64%60¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 44s ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)5% or above64%Kalshi 64%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
5% or above
64%
Not listed
64%
60¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $11K
5.35% or above51%Not listed51%27¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 44s ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)5.35% or above51%Kalshi 51%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
5.35% or above
51%
Not listed
51%
27¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
5.35% or above
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.35% or above
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $3K
5.1% or above46%Not listed46%39¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 44s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.1% or above46%Kalshi 46%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.1% or above
46%
Not listed
46%
39¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.1% or above
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $10K
Below 4.40%44%44%19¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed69¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Below 4.40%44%Polymarket 44%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Below 4.40%
44%
44%
19¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
69¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Below 4.40%
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.40%
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.15% or above43%Not listed43%39¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 44s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.15% or above43%Kalshi 43%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.15% or above
43%
Not listed
43%
39¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.15% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $12K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
5.4% or above42%Not listed42%23¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 44s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.4% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.4% or above
42%
Not listed
42%
23¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.4% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.4% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $573
5.25% or above35%Not listed35%31¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 44s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)5.25% or above35%Kalshi 35%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
5.25% or above
35%
Not listed
35%
31¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
5.25% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $4K
Below 4.30%23.5%23.5%22¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Below 4.30%23.5%Polymarket 23.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Below 4.30%
23.5%
23.5%
22¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Below 4.30%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.30%
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.5% or above22.3%Not listed29%12¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 44s ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)5.5% or above22.3%Kalshi 20%polled, 44s agoKalshi 29%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.5% or above
22.3%
Not listed
29%
12¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.5% or above
22.3%
Kalshi 20%polled, 44s agoKalshi 29%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $507
Below 4.20%16.5%16.5%11¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Below 4.20%16.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Below 4.20%
16.5%
16.5%
11¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Below 4.20%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.20%
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $795
5.45% or above14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 44s ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)5.45% or above14%Kalshi 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
5.45% or above
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
5.45% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.45% or above
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
- Volume
- $404
5.75% or above10%Not listed10%5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 44s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.75% or above10%Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.75% or above
10%
Not listed
10%
5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.75% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $693
6,000 or below8.4%Not listed8.4%3.6¢ bid, 8.4¢ askpolled, 48s ago8.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)6,000 or below8.4%Kalshi 8.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
6,000 or below
8.4%
Not listed
8.4%
3.6¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
8.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
6,000 or below
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,000 or below
- Last price
- 8.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,190 (11.9x)
- Volume
- $154K
6,300 or below8.3%Not listed8.3%8.3¢ bid, 10.8¢ askpolled, 48s ago10.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $926 (9.26x)6,300 or below8.3%Kalshi 8.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
6,300 or below
8.3%
Not listed
8.3%
8.3¢ bid, 10.8¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
10.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $926 (9.26x)
6,300 or below
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,300 or below
- Last price
- 8.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $926 (9.26x)
- Volume
- $227K
6,200 or below7.4%Not listed7.4%3¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, 48s ago7.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)6,200 or below7.4%Kalshi 7.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
6,200 or below
7.4%
Not listed
7.4%
3¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
7.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
6,200 or below
7.4%
Kalshi 7.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,200 or below
- Last price
- 7.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $108K
6,100 or below6.6%Not listed6.6%3.6¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 48s ago6.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)6,100 or below6.6%Kalshi 6.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
6,100 or below
6.6%
Not listed
6.6%
3.6¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
6.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
6,100 or below
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,100 or below
- Last price
- 6.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $85K
Below 4.10%5.5%5.5%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Below 4.10%5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Below 4.10%
5.5%
5.5%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Below 4.10%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.10%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Below 3.90%5.4%5.4%4.3¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed6.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)Below 3.90%5.4%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Below 3.90%
5.4%
5.4%
4.3¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
6.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Below 3.90%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 3.90%
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $360
5,900 or below4.4%Not listed4.4%2¢ bid, 4.4¢ askpolled, 48s ago4.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)5,900 or below4.4%Kalshi 4.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
5,900 or below
4.4%
Not listed
4.4%
2¢ bid, 4.4¢ ask
polled, 48s ago
4.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
5,900 or below
4.4%
Kalshi 4.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,900 or below
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $359K
Below 4.00%4.3%4.3%3¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, 44s agoNot listed5.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)Below 4.00%4.3%Polymarket 4.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Below 4.00%
4.3%
4.3%
3¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
Not listed
5.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Below 4.00%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.00%
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
6% or above1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)6% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance, U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Below 4.70%
- 5.3% or above
- 4.75% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Below 4.70% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". Below 4.70% leads at 100%. Next is 5.3% or above at 99%. $1.1M has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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