The Prediction Markets

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$60K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Below 4.67% 100%

Next is Below 4.70% at 100%. The venues differ most on 4.63 (Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 76%), a 7.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Below 4.67%
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.67%
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.70%
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.70%
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.73%
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.73%
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.64% or below
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
4.64% or below
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
11¢
Volume
$820
Trade this on Kalshi
4.62% or below
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.62% or below
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$883
Trade this on Kalshi
4.63
71%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.64%
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4.63% or below
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 84¢.

Below 4.60%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.60%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.50%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.50%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.55%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.55%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.40%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.40%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.45%
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.45%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$789
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Below 4.67%
  • Below 4.70%
  • Below 4.73%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Below 4.67% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?". Below 4.67% leads at 100%. Next is Below 4.70% at 100%. $60K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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