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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
5.3% or above 99%
Next is 4.75% or above at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
5.3% or above99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min agoNo ask5.3% or above99%Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
5.3% or above
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
No ask
5.3% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.3% or above
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $7K
4.75% or above87%Not listed87%83¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 30s ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)4.75% or above87%Kalshi 87%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
4.75% or above
87%
Not listed
87%
83¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
4.75% or above
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $12K
5% or above64%Not listed64%62¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 30s ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)5% or above64%Kalshi 64%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
5% or above
64%
Not listed
64%
62¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $11K
5.35% or above63%Not listed63%26¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min agoNo ask5.35% or above63%Kalshi 63%polled, 2 min ago
5.35% or above
63%
Not listed
63%
26¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
No ask
5.35% or above
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.35% or above
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- Volume
- $3K
5.1% or above46%Not listed46%40¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 30s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.1% or above46%Kalshi 46%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.1% or above
46%
Not listed
46%
40¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.1% or above
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $10K
5.15% or above43%Not listed43%39¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 30s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.15% or above43%Kalshi 43%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.15% or above
43%
Not listed
43%
39¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.15% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $12K
5.4% or above42%Not listed42%23¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 2 min ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.4% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.4% or above
42%
Not listed
42%
23¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.4% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.4% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $573
Below 4.50%41.5%41.5%40¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Below 4.50%41.5%Polymarket 41.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Below 4.50%
41.5%
41.5%
40¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Below 4.50%
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.50%
- Last price
- 41.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $24K
5.25% or above35%Not listed35%30¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 30s ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)5.25% or above35%Kalshi 35%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
5.25% or above
35%
Not listed
35%
30¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
5.25% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $4K
Below 4.45%34%34%32¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Below 4.45%34%Polymarket 34%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Below 4.45%
34%
34%
32¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Below 4.45%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.45%
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $30K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
5.5% or above22.3%Not listed29%12¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 2 min ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)5.5% or above22.3%Kalshi 20%polled, 30s agoKalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
5.5% or above
22.3%
Not listed
29%
12¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
5.5% or above
22.3%
Kalshi 20%polled, 30s agoKalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $507
Below 4.40%18%18%17¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Below 4.40%18%Polymarket 18%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Below 4.40%
18%
18%
17¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Below 4.40%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.40%
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $19K
Below 4.35%15%15%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Below 4.35%15%Polymarket 15%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Below 4.35%
15%
15%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Below 4.35%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.35%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $26K
5.45% or above14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 2 min ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)5.45% or above14%Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
5.45% or above
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
5.45% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.45% or above
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $404
5.75% or above10%Not listed10%5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 30s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.75% or above10%Kalshi 10%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.75% or above
10%
Not listed
10%
5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.75% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $693
6,000 or below8.4%Not listed8.4%3.6¢ bid, 8.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)6,000 or below8.4%Kalshi 8.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
6,000 or below
8.4%
Not listed
8.4%
3.6¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
6,000 or below
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,000 or below
- Last price
- 8.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,190 (11.9x)
- Volume
- $153K
6,200 or below7.4%Not listed7.4%3¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)6,200 or below7.4%Kalshi 7.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
6,200 or below
7.4%
Not listed
7.4%
3¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
6,200 or below
7.4%
Kalshi 7.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,200 or below
- Last price
- 7.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $108K
6,300 or below7.1%Not listed7.1%6.3¢ bid, 10.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $926 (9.26x)6,300 or below7.1%Kalshi 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
6,300 or below
7.1%
Not listed
7.1%
6.3¢ bid, 10.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $926 (9.26x)
6,300 or below
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,300 or below
- Last price
- 7.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $926 (9.26x)
- Volume
- $227K
6,100 or below6.8%Not listed6.8%3.6¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)6,100 or below6.8%Kalshi 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
6,100 or below
6.8%
Not listed
6.8%
3.6¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
6,100 or below
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,100 or below
- Last price
- 6.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $85K
Below 4.20%5.4%5.4%4.6¢ bid, 6.1¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed6.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)Below 4.20%5.4%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Below 4.20%
5.4%
5.4%
4.6¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
6.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Below 4.20%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.20%
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,639 (16.4x)
- Volume
- $8K
Below 4.30%5.4%5.4%4.4¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Below 4.30%5.4%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Below 4.30%
5.4%
5.4%
4.4¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Below 4.30%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.30%
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $13K
Below 4.25%4.6%4.6%4.2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Below 4.25%4.6%Polymarket 4.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.25%
4.6%
4.6%
4.2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.25%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.25%
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Below 4.00%4.5%4.5%3.9¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Below 4.00%4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.00%
4.5%
4.5%
3.9¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.00%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.00%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
5,900 or below4.4%Not listed4.4%2¢ bid, 4.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)5,900 or below4.4%Kalshi 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
5,900 or below
4.4%
Not listed
4.4%
2¢ bid, 4.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
5,900 or below
4.4%
Kalshi 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,900 or below
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $357K
Below 4.10%4.1%4.1%3.6¢ bid, 4.6¢ askpolled, 30s agoNot listed4.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)Below 4.10%4.1%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Below 4.10%
4.1%
4.1%
3.6¢ bid, 4.6¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
Not listed
4.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Below 4.10%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.10%
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,174 (21.7x)
- Volume
- $10K
6% or above1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 30s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)6% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance, U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 5.3% or above
- 4.75% or above
- 5% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list 5.3% or above for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". 5.3% or above leads at 99%. Next is 4.75% or above at 87%. $1.2M has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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