Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Below 4.75% 66%
Next is 4.77% or below at 61%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Below 4.75%66%66%60¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 53s agoNot listed72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Below 4.75%66%Polymarket 66%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Below 4.75%
66%
66%
60¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
Not listed
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Below 4.75%
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.75%
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $3K
4.77% or below61%Not listed61%61¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 1 min ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)4.77% or below61%Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
4.77% or below
61%
Not listed
61%
61¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
4.77% or below
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.77% or below
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $300
4.76% or below58%Not listed58%58¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 1 min ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)4.76% or below58%Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
4.76% or below
58%
Not listed
58%
58¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
4.76% or below
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.76% or below
- Last price
- 58%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $1K
4.7% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.7% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.7% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.7% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.66% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.66% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.66% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.66% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.67% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.67% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.67% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.67% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.68% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.68% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.68% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.68% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.69% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.69% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.69% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.69% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.71% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.71% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.71% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.71% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.72% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.72% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.72% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.72% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
4.73% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.73% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.73% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.73% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.74% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.74% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.74% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.74% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.75% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.75% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.75% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.75% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Below 4.70%29.5%29.5%16¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 53s agoNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Below 4.70%29.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Below 4.70%
29.5%
29.5%
16¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Below 4.70%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.70%
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $4K
Below 4.65%29%29%17¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 53s agoNot listed41¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Below 4.65%29%Polymarket 29%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Below 4.65%
29%
29%
17¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 53s ago
Not listed
41¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Below 4.65%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.65%
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $696
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Below 4.75%
- 4.77% or below
- 4.76% or below
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Below 4.75% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?". Below 4.75% leads at 66%. Next is 4.77% or below at 61%. $53K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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