The Prediction Markets

How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$88.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

90,000 54%

Next is 70,000 at 34.5%. The venues differ most on 40,000 (Polymarket 3%, Kalshi 5%), a 2.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 41 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
90,000
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
70,000
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
95,000
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
95,000
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$983K
Trade this on Polymarket
65,000
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
65,000
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$654K
Trade this on Polymarket
100,000
20.9%
Polymarket 20.5%live, just nowKalshi 22%live, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
100,000
Price
20.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $99,999.99
Price
22%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

60,000
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
60,000
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
55,000
9.6%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
55,000
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$6.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $55,000.00
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

110,000
8.3%
Polymarket 8%polled, 41s agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
110,000
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $109,999.99
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$725K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

50,000
7.6%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
50,000
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $50,000.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

120,000
4.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
120,000
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $119,999.99
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$648K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Show 20 more outcomes
45,000Arb
4.6%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
45,000
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$8.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $45,000.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

40,000Arb
3.7%
Polymarket 3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
40,000
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $40,000.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

130,000Arb
3.1%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
130,000
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $129,999.99
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$498K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

140,000
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
140,000
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $139,999.99
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$347K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

150,000
2.3%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
150,000
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $149,999.99
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$478K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.1¢.

160,000
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
160,000
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$727K
Trade this on Polymarket
30,000
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
30,000
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$933K
Trade this on Polymarket
35,000
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
35,000
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$3.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
25,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
25,000
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
180,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
180,000
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$583K
Trade this on Polymarket
20,000
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
20,000
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$644K
Trade this on Polymarket
170,000
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
170,000
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$480K
Trade this on Polymarket
200,000
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
200,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $199,999.99
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$883K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

190,000
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
190,000
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$821K
Trade this on Polymarket
15,000
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
15,000
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$5.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
5,000
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,000
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$848K
Trade this on Polymarket
250,000
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
250,000
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$5.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
10,000
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
10,000
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$913K
Trade this on Polymarket
500,000
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
500,000
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
1,000,000
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,000,000
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 40,000 on Polymarket at 3.1¢, sell on Kalshi at 4¢ (90 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 90,000
  • 70,000
  • 95,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 90,000 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?". 90,000 leads at 54%. Next is 70,000 at 34.5%. $88.7M has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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