The Prediction Markets

How low will BNB get in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$206K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

650 46.5%

Next is 600 at 22%. The venues differ most on 500 (Polymarket 10%, Kalshi 9%), a 1.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
650
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
650
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
600
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
600
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
1000
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
1000
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $540.00
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $540.00
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$833
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $550.00
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $550.00
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Kalshi
1100
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
1100
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
500
9.8%
Polymarket 10%polled, 48s agoKalshi 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
500
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $500.00
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Below $530.00
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $530.00
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1200
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1200
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $490.00
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $490.00
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
400
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
400
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $480.00
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $480.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $520.00
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $520.00
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
1300
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
1300
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $510.00
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $510.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
300
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
300
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1400
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1400
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
1500
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1500
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
1600
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1600
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
200
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
200
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
1800
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1800
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
2000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
2000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 650
  • 600
  • 1000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 650 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will BNB get in 2026?". 650 leads at 46.5%. Next is 600 at 22%. $206K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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