The Prediction Markets

How low will BNB get in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$40K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $810.00 73%

Next is 700 at 46%. The venues differ most on 700 (Polymarket 37%, Kalshi 49%), a 12-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $810.00
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $810.00
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
700
46%
Polymarket 37%polled, 54s agoKalshi 49%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
700
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $700.00
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 47¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Below $690.00
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $690.00
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $680.00
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $680.00
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $670.00
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $670.00
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $660.00
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $660.00
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
800
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
800
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $820.00
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $820.00
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $650.00
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $650.00
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $630.00
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $630.00
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 27 more outcomes
Below $640.00
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $640.00
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $620.00
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $620.00
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $830.00
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $830.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $840.00
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $840.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $850.00
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $850.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
900
7.6%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
900
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $900.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Above $860.00
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $860.00
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $870.00
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $870.00
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
600
7%
Polymarket 8%polled, 54s agoKalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
600
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $600.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Above $910.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $910.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $920.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $920.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $930.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $930.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $960.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $960.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $970.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $970.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $610.00
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $610.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $590.00
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $590.00
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $890.00
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $890.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $940.00
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $940.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $580.00
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $580.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
500
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
500
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$803
Trade this on Polymarket
1,000
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,000
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
1,100
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,100
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $880.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $880.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $950.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $950.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
400
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
400
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
1,200
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,200
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
300
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
300
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $810.00
  • 700
  • Below $690.00

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $810.00 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will BNB get in October?". Above $810.00 leads at 73%. Next is 700 at 46%. $40K has traded across 37 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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