The Prediction Markets

How low will DOGE get in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$155K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

0.06 41.3%

Next is Above $0.11 at 22%. The venues differ most on 0.06 (Polymarket 46%, Kalshi 27%), a 19-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
0.06Arb
41.3%
Polymarket 46%polled, 41s agoKalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.06
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.06
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

Above $0.11
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $0.11
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $0.12
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $0.12
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $0.14
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $0.14
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $0.15
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $0.15
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.16
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.16
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.20
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.20
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $0.04
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.04
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.24
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.24
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $0.03
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.03
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Below $0.05
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.05
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$831
Trade this on Kalshi
0.28
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.28
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $0.13
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $0.13
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.02
3.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.02
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.02
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

0.32
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.32
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $0.01
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.01
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.36
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.36
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.44
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.44
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.40
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.40
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.52
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.52
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.48
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.48
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 0.06 on Kalshi at 27¢, sell on Polymarket at 36¢ (900 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0.06
  • Above $0.11
  • Above $0.12

Live prices for 0.06

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will DOGE get in 2026?". 0.06 leads at 41.3%. Next is Above $0.11 at 22%. $155K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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