The Prediction Markets

How low will HYPE get in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Below $75.00 70%

Next is 80 at 57%. The venues differ most on 100 (Polymarket 4.4%, Kalshi 8%), a 3.7-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Below $75.00
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $75.00
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
80
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
80
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
84
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
84
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Polymarket
76
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
76
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Polymarket
88
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
88
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
72
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
72
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
92
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
92
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Polymarket
68
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
68
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Polymarket
96
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
96
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $70.00
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70.00
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$470
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 21 more outcomes
Below $72.50
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $72.50
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $67.50
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $67.50
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $65.00
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65.00
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
64
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
64
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $97.50
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $97.50
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $62.50
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $62.50
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $102.50
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $102.50
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $105.00
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $105.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $107.50
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $107.50
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
100
5.5%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
100
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 1 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Below $42.50
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $42.50
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
104
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
104
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
60
4.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
60
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $60.00
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 1 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Below $57.50
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $57.50
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $52.50
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $52.50
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $55.00
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $55.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
112
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
112
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $45.00
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $45.00
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $47.50
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $47.50
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $50.00
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $50.00
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
108
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
108
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 1 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Below $75.00
  • 80
  • 84

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Below $75.00 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will HYPE get in October?". Below $75.00 leads at 70%. Next is 80 at 57%. $44K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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