The Prediction Markets

How low will Lake Mead drop?

Closes
Apr 15, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 d ago
Share

What the markets expect

1,028–1,033 ft 46.7%

Next is Below 1,028 ft at 30.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1,028–1,033 ft 46.7%Below 1,028 ft 30.3%1,033–1,038 ft 19.5%Above 1,038 ft 3.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 33 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1,028–1,033 ft
46.7%
Polymarket 49.3%(46.7% fair)polled, 33 h agoBest Yes 76.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,028–1,033 ft
Last price
49.3%
Fair, margin removed
46.7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
76.7¢
Sell Yes
21.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 1,028 ft
30.3%
Polymarket 32%(30.3% fair)polled, 33 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 1,028 ft
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
30.3%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,033–1,038 ft
19.5%
Polymarket 20.6%(19.5% fair)polled, 33 h agoBest Yes 40.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $246 (2.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,033–1,038 ft
Last price
20.6%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
40.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$246 (2.46x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1,038 ft
3.5%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 33 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Above 1,038 ft
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: data.usbr.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1,028–1,033 ft
  • Below 1,028 ft
  • 1,033–1,038 ft

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will Lake Mead drop?". 1,028–1,033 ft leads at 46.7%. Next is Below 1,028 ft at 30.3%. $23K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 15, 2027.

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets