Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Below 4.70% 100%
Next is Below 5.20% at 56%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Below 4.70%100%100%99.9¢ bid, — askpolled, 58s agoNot listedNo askBelow 4.70%100%Polymarket 100%polled, 58s ago
Below 4.70%
100%
100%
99.9¢ bid, — ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
No ask
Below 4.70%
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 58s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.70%
- Last price
- 100%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99.9¢
- Volume
- $6K
Below 5.20%56%56%55¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Below 5.20%56%Polymarket 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Below 5.20%
56%
56%
55¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Below 5.20%
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.20%
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $22K
Below 4.50%48.4%67.5%59¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Below 4.50%48.4%Polymarket 42%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 67.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Below 4.50%
48.4%
67.5%
59¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Below 4.50%
48.4%
Polymarket 42%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 67.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.50%
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $24K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.50%
- Last price
- 67.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $3K
Below 5.15%43%43%42¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Below 5.15%43%Polymarket 43%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Below 5.15%
43%
43%
42¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Below 5.15%
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.15%
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $20K
Below 4.45%33%33%31¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Below 4.45%33%Polymarket 33%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Below 4.45%
33%
33%
31¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Below 4.45%
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.45%
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $30K
Below 5.10%32%32%29¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Below 5.10%32%Polymarket 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Below 5.10%
32%
32%
29¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Below 5.10%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.10%
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $21K
Below 5.05%28.5%28.5%28¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Below 5.05%28.5%Polymarket 28.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Below 5.05%
28.5%
28.5%
28¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Below 5.05%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.05%
- Last price
- 28.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $16K
Below 4.40%22.8%37%19¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Below 4.40%22.8%Polymarket 18%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 37%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Below 4.40%
22.8%
37%
19¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Below 4.40%
22.8%
Polymarket 18%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 37%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.40%
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $19K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.40%
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $2K
Below 4.60%21.9%75.5%74¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed4.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)Below 4.60%21.9%Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 75.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Below 4.60%
21.9%
75.5%
74¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
4.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Below 4.60%
21.9%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 75.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.60%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,128 (21.3x)
- Volume
- $14K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.60%
- Last price
- 75.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $3K
Below 5.00%20%20%19¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Below 5.00%20%Polymarket 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Below 5.00%
20%
20%
19¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Below 5.00%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.00%
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $15K
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Below 4.35%15%15%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Below 4.35%15%Polymarket 15%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Below 4.35%
15%
15%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Below 4.35%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.35%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $26K
Below 4.90%14.5%14.5%13¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Below 4.90%14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Below 4.90%
14.5%
14.5%
13¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Below 4.90%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.90%
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $10K
Below 4.95%14.5%14.5%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Below 4.95%14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Below 4.95%
14.5%
14.5%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Below 4.95%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.95%
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $11K
63.99 or below13%Not listed13%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)63.99 or below13%Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
63.99 or below
13%
Not listed
13%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
63.99 or below
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 63.99 or below
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $8K
64.99 or below13%Not listed13%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)64.99 or below13%Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
64.99 or below
13%
Not listed
13%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
64.99 or below
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 64.99 or below
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $85K
Below 4.30%9.9%23.5%22¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Below 4.30%9.9%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 23.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Below 4.30%
9.9%
23.5%
22¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Below 4.30%
9.9%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 23.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.30%
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $13K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.30%
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $1K
61.99 or below9%Not listed9%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)61.99 or below9%Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
61.99 or below
9%
Not listed
9%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
61.99 or below
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 61.99 or below
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $7K
62.99 or below9%Not listed9%9¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)62.99 or below9%Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
62.99 or below
9%
Not listed
9%
9¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
62.99 or below
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 62.99 or below
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $10K
Below 4.20%6.9%11.5%2¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed6.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)Below 4.20%6.9%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Below 4.20%
6.9%
11.5%
2¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
6.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Below 4.20%
6.9%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.20%
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,639 (16.4x)
- Volume
- $8K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.20%
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $776
59.99 or below6%Not listed6%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)59.99 or below6%Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
59.99 or below
6%
Not listed
6%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
59.99 or below
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 59.99 or below
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $50K
60.99 or below6%Not listed6%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)60.99 or below6%Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
60.99 or below
6%
Not listed
6%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
60.99 or below
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 60.99 or below
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $8K
Below 3.90%5.5%5.5%4.3¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed6.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)Below 3.90%5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Below 3.90%
5.5%
5.5%
4.3¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
6.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Below 3.90%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 3.90%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $360
Below 4.80%5%5%4.6¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Below 4.80%5%Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Below 4.80%
5%
5%
4.6¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Below 4.80%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.80%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $9K
Below 4.25%4.6%4.6%4.2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Below 4.25%4.6%Polymarket 4.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.25%
4.6%
4.6%
4.2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.25%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.25%
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Below 4.10%4.5%5.5%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed4.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)Below 4.10%4.5%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Below 4.10%
4.5%
5.5%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
4.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Below 4.10%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.10%
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,174 (21.7x)
- Volume
- $10K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.10%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Below 4.00%4.4%4.3%3¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 58s agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Below 4.00%4.4%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 4.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.00%
4.4%
4.3%
3¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Below 4.00%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 4.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.00%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.00%
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $676
56.99 or below4%Not listed4%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)56.99 or below4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
56.99 or below
4%
Not listed
4%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
56.99 or below
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 56.99 or below
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
57.99 or below4%Not listed4%3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)57.99 or below4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
57.99 or below
4%
Not listed
4%
3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
57.99 or below
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 57.99 or below
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
58.99 or below4%Not listed4%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)58.99 or below4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
58.99 or below
4%
Not listed
4%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
58.99 or below
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 58.99 or below
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
54.99 or below3%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)54.99 or below3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
54.99 or below
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
54.99 or below
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 54.99 or below
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $39K
49.99 or below2%Not listed2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)49.99 or below2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
49.99 or below
2%
Not listed
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
49.99 or below
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 49.99 or below
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $45K
55.99 or below2%Not listed2%2¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)55.99 or below2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
55.99 or below
2%
Not listed
2%
2¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
55.99 or below
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 55.99 or below
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ICE
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Below 4.70%
- Below 5.20%
- Below 4.50%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Below 4.70% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?". Below 4.70% leads at 100%. Next is Below 5.20% at 56%. $569K has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More economics markets
See all economics markets- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?Yes94.1%$31.5M traded
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Fed maintains rate93%$14.3M traded
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?Exactly 0 cuts94.1%$10.8M traded
- How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?115.01 or above39%$9.3M traded
- Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA57%$8.8M traded
- S&P close price end of 2026?7,800 to 7,999.9924%$8.0M traded