The Prediction Markets

How low will SOL get in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$2.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

90 51.5%

Next is 80 at 29%. The venues differ most on 70 (Polymarket 14%, Kalshi 23%), a 9.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 36 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
90
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
90
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
80
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
80
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
140
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
140
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $150.00
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $150.00
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$106K
Trade this on Kalshi
70
16.3%
Polymarket 14%live, 15s agoKalshi 23%live, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
70
Price
14%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70.00
Price
23%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

160Arb
15%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
160
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$155K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $160.00
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 14¢ and selling on Kalshi at 19¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Above $170.00
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $170.00
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $190.00
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $190.00
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $65.00
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65.00
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Kalshi
180Arb
8.5%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 42s agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
180
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$153K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $180.00
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Show 18 more outcomes
60
8.5%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 42s agoKalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
60
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$229K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $60.00
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.7¢.

200
6.7%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
200
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $200.00
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

50
6.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
50
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$138K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $50.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Below $45.00
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $45.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$991
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $55.00
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $55.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Kalshi
220
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
220
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $250.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $250.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $35.00
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $35.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Kalshi
30
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
30
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
300Arb
3.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
300
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $300.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

40
3.4%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 42s agoKalshi 4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
40
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$238K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $40.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

240
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
240
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Polymarket
260
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
260
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
280
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
280
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
320
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
320
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$125K
Trade this on Polymarket
20
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$220K
Trade this on Polymarket
400
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
400
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Polymarket
600
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
600
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$175K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 160 on Polymarket at 14¢, sell on Kalshi at 19¢ (500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 90
  • 80
  • 140

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 90 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will SOL get in 2026?". 90 leads at 51.5%. Next is 80 at 29%. $2.7M has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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