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Best ask
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What the markets expect
4.84% or below 68.5%
Next is 4.83% or below at 64%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.84% or below68.5%68.5%57¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 7 min ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)4.84% or below68.5%Kalshi 68.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.84% or below
68.5%
68.5%
57¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.84% or below
68.5%
Kalshi 68.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.84% or below
- Last price
- 68.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
4.83% or below64%64%52¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 7 min ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)4.83% or below64%Kalshi 64%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.83% or below
64%
64%
52¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.83% or below
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.83% or below
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
4.82% or below60.5%60.5%49¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 7 min ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)4.82% or below60.5%Kalshi 60.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.82% or below
60.5%
60.5%
49¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.82% or below
60.5%
Kalshi 60.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.82% or below
- Last price
- 60.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
4.85% or below59%59%59¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 7 min ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)4.85% or below59%Kalshi 59%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.85% or below
59%
59%
59¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.85% or below
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.85% or below
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $3K
4.81% or below56%56%44¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 7 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)4.81% or below56%Kalshi 56%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
4.81% or below
56%
56%
44¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
4.81% or below
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.81% or below
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
4.8% or below52.5%52.5%40¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 7 min ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)4.8% or below52.5%Kalshi 52.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.8% or below
52.5%
52.5%
40¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.8% or below
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.8% or below
- Last price
- 52.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
4.79% or below48.5%48.5%35¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 7 min ago62¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $161 (1.61x)4.79% or below48.5%Kalshi 48.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
4.79% or below
48.5%
48.5%
35¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
62¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
4.79% or below
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.79% or below
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
4.78% or below45.5%45.5%32¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 7 min ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)4.78% or below45.5%Kalshi 45.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.78% or below
45.5%
45.5%
32¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.78% or below
45.5%
Kalshi 45.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.78% or below
- Last price
- 45.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
4.77% or below41%41%27¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 7 min ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)4.77% or below41%Kalshi 41%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
4.77% or below
41%
41%
27¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
4.77% or below
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.77% or below
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
4.76% or below38%38%24¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 7 min ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)4.76% or below38%Kalshi 38%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.76% or below
38%
38%
24¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.76% or below
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.76% or below
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
4.75% or below35%35%21¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 7 min ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)4.75% or below35%Kalshi 35%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
4.75% or below
35%
35%
21¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
4.75% or below
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or below
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.84% or below
- 4.83% or below
- 4.82% or below
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". 4.84% or below leads at 68.5%. Next is 4.83% or below at 64%. $44K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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