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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Below 5.25% 72%
Next is Below 4.70% at 69.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Below 5.25%72%72%54¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Below 5.25%72%Polymarket 72%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Below 5.25%
72%
72%
54¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
90¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Below 5.25%
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.25%
- Last price
- 72%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
Below 4.70%69.5%69.5%69¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed70¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Below 4.70%69.5%Polymarket 69.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Below 4.70%
69.5%
69.5%
69¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
70¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Below 4.70%
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.70%
- Last price
- 69.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Below 4.65%62.5%62.5%62¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed63¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $159 (1.59x)Below 4.65%62.5%Polymarket 62.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Below 4.65%
62.5%
62.5%
62¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
63¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Below 4.65%
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.65%
- Last price
- 62.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
Below 5.20%59.5%59.5%59¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed60¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Below 5.20%59.5%Polymarket 59.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Below 5.20%
59.5%
59.5%
59¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
60¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Below 5.20%
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.20%
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $22K
Below 4.55%48.5%48.5%48¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Below 4.55%48.5%Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Below 4.55%
48.5%
48.5%
48¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Below 4.55%
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.55%
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Below 4.50%47.6%55.5%38¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Below 4.50%47.6%Polymarket 45%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 55.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Below 4.50%
47.6%
55.5%
38¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Below 4.50%
47.6%
Polymarket 45%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 55.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.50%
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $25K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.50%
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $3K
Below 4.60%45%71%69¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Below 4.60%45%Polymarket 59.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 20s agoPolymarket 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Below 4.60%
45%
71%
69¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Below 4.60%
45%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 20s agoPolymarket 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.60%
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.60%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $16K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.60%
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $3K
Below 5.15%43%43%42¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Below 5.15%43%Polymarket 43%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Below 5.15%
43%
43%
42¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Below 5.15%
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.15%
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $20K
Below 5.10%33.5%33.5%32¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Below 5.10%33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Below 5.10%
33.5%
33.5%
32¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Below 5.10%
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.10%
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $21K
Below 4.45%32.5%32.5%32¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed33¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Below 4.45%32.5%Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Below 4.45%
32.5%
32.5%
32¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
33¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Below 4.45%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.45%
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $32K
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
Below 4.40%26.1%38.5%22¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Below 4.40%26.1%Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Below 4.40%
26.1%
38.5%
22¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Below 4.40%
26.1%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.40%
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $21K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.40%
- Last price
- 38.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $2K
Below 5.05%24%24%23¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Below 5.05%24%Polymarket 24%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Below 5.05%
24%
24%
23¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Below 5.05%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.05%
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $16K
Below 4.35%22%22%21¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Below 4.35%22%Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Below 4.35%
22%
22%
21¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Below 4.35%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.35%
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $32K
Below 5.00%21%21%20¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Below 5.00%21%Polymarket 21%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Below 5.00%
21%
21%
20¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Below 5.00%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 5.00%
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $16K
Below 4.95%19%19%18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Below 4.95%19%Polymarket 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Below 4.95%
19%
19%
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Below 4.95%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.95%
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $14K
Below 4.30%16.9%23.5%22¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed15.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $654 (6.54x)Below 4.30%16.9%Polymarket 14.7%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Below 4.30%
16.9%
23.5%
22¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
15.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Below 4.30%
16.9%
Polymarket 14.7%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.30%
- Last price
- 14.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 14.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $654 (6.54x)
- Volume
- $16K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.30%
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
Below 4.90%16%16%15¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Below 4.90%16%Polymarket 16%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Below 4.90%
16%
16%
15¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Below 4.90%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.90%
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $16K
Below 4.25%11%11%10.4¢ bid, 11.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed11.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $862 (8.62x)Below 4.25%11%Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Below 4.25%
11%
11%
10.4¢ bid, 11.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
11.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Below 4.25%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.25%
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $862 (8.62x)
- Volume
- $9K
Below 4.80%9.6%9.6%8.3¢ bid, 10.9¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed10.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $917 (9.17x)Below 4.80%9.6%Polymarket 9.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Below 4.80%
9.6%
9.6%
8.3¢ bid, 10.9¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
10.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Below 4.80%
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.80%
- Last price
- 9.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $917 (9.17x)
- Volume
- $12K
6,300 or below8.7%Not listed8.7%8.7¢ bid, 10.6¢ askpolled, 2 min ago10.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $943 (9.43x)6,300 or below8.7%Kalshi 8.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
6,300 or below
8.7%
Not listed
8.7%
8.7¢ bid, 10.6¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
10.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $943 (9.43x)
6,300 or below
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,300 or below
- Last price
- 8.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $943 (9.43x)
- Volume
- $227K
6,000 or below8.4%Not listed8.4%3.6¢ bid, 8.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago8.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)6,000 or below8.4%Kalshi 8.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
6,000 or below
8.4%
Not listed
8.4%
3.6¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
8.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
6,000 or below
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,000 or below
- Last price
- 8.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,190 (11.9x)
- Volume
- $154K
6,200 or below7.4%Not listed7.4%3¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago7.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)6,200 or below7.4%Kalshi 7.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
6,200 or below
7.4%
Not listed
7.4%
3¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
7.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
6,200 or below
7.4%
Kalshi 7.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,200 or below
- Last price
- 7.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $108K
Below 4.20%6.7%14.5%3¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)Below 4.20%6.7%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Below 4.20%
6.7%
14.5%
3¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Below 4.20%
6.7%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.20%
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $8K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.20%
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $809
6,100 or below6.5%Not listed6.5%3.6¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago6.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)6,100 or below6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
6,100 or below
6.5%
Not listed
6.5%
3.6¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
6.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
6,100 or below
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,100 or below
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $85K
Below 3.90%5.4%5.4%4.3¢ bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed6.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)Below 3.90%5.4%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Below 3.90%
5.4%
5.4%
4.3¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
6.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Below 3.90%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 3.90%
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $360
Below 4.10%5.2%4.5%2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Below 4.10%5.2%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Below 4.10%
5.2%
4.5%
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Below 4.10%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.10%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $11K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.10%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
5,900 or below4.5%Not listed4.5%3.1¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago4.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)5,900 or below4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
5,900 or below
4.5%
Not listed
4.5%
3.1¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
4.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
5,900 or below
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,900 or below
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $359K
Below 4.00%4.1%4.6%3.7¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed5.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)Below 4.00%4.1%Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Below 4.00%
4.1%
4.6%
3.7¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
5.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Below 4.00%
4.1%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.00%
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,961 (19.6x)
- Volume
- $8K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.00%
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Below 5.25%
- Below 4.70%
- Below 4.65%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Below 5.25% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.035 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will the S&P get this year?". Below 5.25% leads at 72%. Next is Below 4.70% at 69.5%. $1.3M has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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