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What the markets expect
36.0+ 96.4%
Next is 37.0+ at 93.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
36.0+96.4%96.4%95.4¢ bid, 97.4¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed97.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)36.0+96.4%Polymarket 96.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
36.0+
96.4%
96.4%
95.4¢ bid, 97.4¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
97.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
36.0+
96.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 36.0+
- Last price
- 96.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 95.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $666
37.0+93.5%93.5%92¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed95¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $105 (1.05x)37.0+93.5%Polymarket 93.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
37.0+
93.5%
93.5%
92¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
95¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
37.0+
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 37.0+
- Last price
- 93.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $2K
37%85.2%85.2%84¢ bid, 86.3¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed86.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $116 (1.16x)37%85.2%Polymarket 85.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 86.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
37%
85.2%
85.2%
84¢ bid, 86.3¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
86.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
37%
85.2%
Polymarket 85.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 86.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 37%
- Last price
- 85.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $755
38.0+85%85%76¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed94¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $106 (1.06x)38.0+85%Polymarket 85%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
38.0+
85%
85%
76¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
94¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
38.0+
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 38.0+
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $295
Below 36%81%Not listed81%81¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 35s ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Below 36%81%Kalshi 81%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Below 36%
81%
Not listed
81%
81¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Below 36%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below 36%
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $88K
39%61.5%61.5%59¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)39%61.5%Polymarket 61.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
39%
61.5%
61.5%
59¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
39%
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 39%
- Last price
- 61.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $3K
36%60%60%55¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed65¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $154 (1.54x)36%60%Polymarket 60%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
36%
60%
60%
55¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
65¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
36%
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 36%
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $2K
40%56%56%55¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)40%56%Polymarket 56%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
40%
56%
56%
55¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
40%
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 40%
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $3K
35%50.5%50.5%47¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)35%50.5%Polymarket 50.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
35%
50.5%
50.5%
47¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
35%
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 35%
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $2K
34%48%48%43¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed53¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $189 (1.89x)34%48%Polymarket 48%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
34%
48%
48%
43¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
53¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
34%
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 34%
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
38.5–38.946.5%46.5%39¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)38.5–38.946.5%Polymarket 46.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
38.5–38.9
46.5%
46.5%
39¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
38.5–38.9
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 38.5–38.9
- Last price
- 46.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $646
Below 35%45%Not listed45%42¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 35s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Below 35%45%Kalshi 45%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Below 35%
45%
Not listed
45%
42¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Below 35%
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below 35%
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $69K
39.0+30%30%8¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed52¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $192 (1.92x)39.0+30%Polymarket 30%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
39.0+
30%
30%
8¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
52¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
39.0+
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 39.0+
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $597
41%24%24%10¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)41%24%Polymarket 24%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
41%
24%
24%
10¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
41%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 41%
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $2K
39.0–39.423%23%9¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)39.0–39.423%Polymarket 23%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
39.0–39.4
23%
23%
9¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
39.0–39.4
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 39.0–39.4
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $386
Below 34%23%Not listed23%20¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 35s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Below 34%23%Kalshi 23%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Below 34%
23%
Not listed
23%
20¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Below 34%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below 34%
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $45K
38.0–38.422.5%22.5%9¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)38.0–38.422.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
38.0–38.4
22.5%
22.5%
9¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
38.0–38.4
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 38.0–38.4
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $214
37.5–37.919%19%5¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed33¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $303 (3.03x)37.5–37.919%Polymarket 19%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
37.5–37.9
19%
19%
5¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
33¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
37.5–37.9
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 37.5–37.9
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $471
42%19%19%16¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)42%19%Polymarket 19%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
42%
19%
19%
16¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
42%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 42%
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $1K
37.518%18%4¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)37.518%Polymarket 18%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
37.5
18%
18%
4¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
37.5
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 37.5
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $445
39.5+15.5%15.5%6¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)39.5+15.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
39.5+
15.5%
15.5%
6¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
39.5+
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 39.5+
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $390
Below 33%13%Not listed13%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 35s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Below 33%13%Kalshi 13%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Below 33%
13%
Not listed
13%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Below 33%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below 33%
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $70K
44%10.5%10.5%9¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)44%10.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
44%
10.5%
10.5%
9¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
44%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 44%
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
30%9.5%9.5%8¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)30%9.5%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
30%
9.5%
9.5%
8¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
30%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 30%
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $2K
32%8.5%8.5%7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)32%8.5%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
32%
8.5%
8.5%
7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
32%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 32%
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
40.0+8.5%8.5%7.5¢ bid, 9.5¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed9.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)40.0+8.5%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
40.0+
8.5%
8.5%
7.5¢ bid, 9.5¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
9.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
40.0+
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 40.0+
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,053 (10.5x)
- Volume
- $1K
46%6.5%6.5%5¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)46%6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
46%
6.5%
6.5%
5¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
46%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 46%
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $577
41.0+1.1%1.1%1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 35s agoNot listed1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)41.0+1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
41.0+
1.1%
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
Not listed
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
41.0+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 41.0+
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $392
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: realclearpolling.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: VoteHub
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 36.0+
- 37.0+
- 37%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 36.0+ for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?". 36.0+ leads at 96.4%. Next is 37.0+ at 93.5%. $369K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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