The Prediction Markets

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

7 20%

Next is 8 at 15.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

7 20%8 15.8%9 15.8%10 13.7%6 9.5%4 others 25.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
7
20%
Polymarket 19%(20% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
7
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8
15.8%
Polymarket 15%(15.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Polymarket
9
15.8%
Polymarket 15%(15.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
9
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
10
13.7%
Polymarket 13%(13.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
13.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
6
9.5%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
6
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
11
9.5%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
11
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
12
5.3%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
12
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Polymarket
13
5.2%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
13
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
more than 13
5.2%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
more than 13
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: earthquake.usgs.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 7
  • 8
  • 9

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?". 7 leads at 20%. Next is 8 at 15.8%. $9K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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