The Prediction Markets

How many bills will President Trump sign in Oct 2026?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$19K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

At least 18 93%

Next is At least 22 at 40%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 18
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 20
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 26
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 26
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 24
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 24
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, Library of Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 18
  • At least 22
  • At least 20

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many bills will President Trump sign in Oct 2026?". At least 18 leads at 93%. Next is At least 22 at 40%. $19K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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