The Prediction Markets

How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$210K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

12-15 82.2%

Next is 16-19 at 11.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

12-15 82.2%16-19 11.8%12 3.4%20-23 1.8%24-27 0.7%28-31 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
12-15
82.2%
Polymarket 81.6%(82.2% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 82.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $121 (1.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
12-15
Last price
81.6%
Fair, margin removed
82.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
82.4¢
Sell Yes
80.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$121 (1.21x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Polymarket
16-19
11.8%
Polymarket 11.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
16-19
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
12
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
12
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
20-23
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-23
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
24-27
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
24-27
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
28-31
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
28-31
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
32+
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
32+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: waymo.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 12-15
  • 16-19
  • 12

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?". 12-15 leads at 82.2%. Next is 16-19 at 11.8%. $210K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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