The Prediction Markets

How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$183K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
7
46.6%
Polymarket 41.4%(46.6% fair)polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 44.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $225 (2.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
7
Last price
41.4%
Fair, margin removed
46.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
44.5¢
Sell Yes
38.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$225 (2.25x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
8
14.2%
Polymarket 12.7%(14.2% fair)polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 17.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $565 (5.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
12.7%
Fair, margin removed
14.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
17.7¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$565 (5.65x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
5
11.1%
Polymarket 9.9%(11.1% fair)polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 17.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $562 (5.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
11.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
17.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$562 (5.62x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
10
10.8%
Polymarket 9.6%(10.8% fair)polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 14.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $709 (7.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
9.6%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
11
7%
Polymarket 6.2%(7% fair)polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
11
Last price
6.2%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
9
4.4%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
9
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
12+
4.3%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
12+
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
6
1.6%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3037 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
6
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 7
  • 8
  • 5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?". 7 last traded at 46.6%. Next is 8 at 14.2%. $183K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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