The Prediction Markets

How many companies will go bankrupt this year?

Closes
Jan 10, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 550 99%

Next is Above 600 at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 550
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 58s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 550
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$124
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 600
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 600
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 650
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 650
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 750
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 750
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 850
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 850
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 900
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 950
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 950
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,050
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,050
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,000
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,000
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 1,100
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,100
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,150
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,150
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,200
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,200
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Standard & Poor's

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 550
  • Above 600
  • Above 650

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many companies will go bankrupt this year?". Above 550 leads at 99%. Next is Above 600 at 98%. $12K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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