The Prediction Markets

How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/19-10/25)

Starts in 3 daysKickoff
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

7 99%

Next is Strategic / Strategy at 58.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
7
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
7
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Strategic / Strategy
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strategic / Strategy
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire / Uranium
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ceasefire / Uranium
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Four More Years
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Four More Years
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Allah
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allah
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Six Seven
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Six Seven
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket
Vanilla / Ice Cream
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vanilla / Ice Cream
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Flying Car / Roadster
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flying Car / Roadster
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$991
Trade this on Polymarket
4
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
5
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
6
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
6
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Getty Images

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 7
  • Strategic / Strategy
  • Ceasefire / Uranium

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 7 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/19-10/25) ". 7 leads at 99%. Next is Strategic / Strategy at 58.5%. $48K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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