The Prediction Markets

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.7M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

8 61.2%

Next is 9 at 28.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

8 61.2%9 28.2%10 7.9%11 1%12 0.9%3 others 0.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
8
61.2%
Polymarket 65.7%(61.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 66.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $150 (1.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
65.7%
Fair, margin removed
61.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
66.8¢
Sell Yes
64.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$150 (1.50x)
Volume
$329K
Trade this on Polymarket
9
28.2%
Polymarket 30.3%(28.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $309 (3.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
9
Last price
30.3%
Fair, margin removed
28.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32.4¢
Sell Yes
28.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$309 (3.09x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Polymarket
10
7.9%
Polymarket 8.5%(7.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $709 (7.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
8.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
11
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
11
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
12
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
12
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
13
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
13
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Polymarket
15+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
15+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$131K
Trade this on Polymarket
14
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
14
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$154K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 8
  • 9
  • 10

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?". 8 leads at 61.2%. Next is 9 at 28.2%. $1.7M has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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