The Prediction Markets

How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

Closes
Dec 9, 2026, in 47 days
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

0 45.5%

Next is 1 at 29.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

0 45.5%1 29.2%2 13.5%3 8.4%4+ 3.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
0
45.5%
Polymarket 40.5%(45.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
40.5%
Fair, margin removed
45.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
1
29.2%
Polymarket 26%(29.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $210 (2.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
29.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47.7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$210 (2.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2
13.5%
Polymarket 12%(13.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $508 (5.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.7¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$508 (5.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3
8.4%
Polymarket 7.5%(8.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4+
3.4%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4+
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0
  • 1
  • 2

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?". 0 leads at 45.5%. Next is 1 at 29.2%. $32K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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