The Prediction Markets

How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$79K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Beth Hammack 75%

Next is Lorie Logan at 52%. The venues differ most on 4+ (Polymarket 12.3%, Kalshi 3%), a 9.3-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Beth Hammack
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beth Hammack
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lorie Logan
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorie Logan
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Neel Kashkari
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Neel Kashkari
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
2
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 32s agoKalshi 29%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
2
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 31¢.

1
21%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 22%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
1
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

3
20.9%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 23%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
3
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

0
20%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 19%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
0
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Anna Paulson
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anna Paulson
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4+
7.5%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 32s agoKalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4+
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Michael Barr
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Barr
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Michelle Bowman
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Bowman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$617
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Waller
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Waller
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Kalshi
John Williams
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Williams
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
5
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa Cook
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Cook
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerome Powell
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Warsh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Warsh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Kalshi
Philip Jefferson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philip Jefferson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Beth Hammack
  • Lorie Logan
  • Neel Kashkari

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Beth Hammack for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?". Beth Hammack leads at 75%. Next is Lorie Logan at 52%. $79K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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