The Prediction Markets

How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$53K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

2 29.3%

Next is 0 at 22.7%. The venues differ most on 4+ (Polymarket 8.7%, Kalshi 3%), a 5.6-point gap.

2 29.3%0 22.7%1 20.4%3 20%4+ 5.6%5 2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
2
29.3%
Polymarket 29.5%(28.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 31%(30.1% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
2
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
30.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 31¢.

0Arb
22.7%
Polymarket 24%(23.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%(21.4% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
23.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
0
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
21.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 22¢ and selling on Polymarket at 23¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

1
20.4%
Polymarket 20.5%(19.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%(21.4% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
1
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
21.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

3
20%
Polymarket 19%(18.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%(22.3% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
18.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
3
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
22.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 19¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

4+
5.6%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4+
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

5
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 0 on Kalshi at 22¢, sell on Polymarket at 23¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Federal Reserve
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2
  • 0
  • 1

Live prices for 2

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?". 2 leads at 29.3%. Next is 0 at 22.7%. $53K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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