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What the markets expect
Above 110,000 90.5%
Next is Above 120,000 at 80.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 110,00090.5%90.5%86¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, just now95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 110,00090.5%Kalshi 90.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 110,000
90.5%
90.5%
86¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, just now
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 110,000
90.5%
Kalshi 90.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 110,000
- Last price
- 90.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Above 120,00080.5%80.5%76¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, just now85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Above 120,00080.5%Kalshi 80.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Above 120,000
80.5%
80.5%
76¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, just now
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Above 120,000
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 120,000
- Last price
- 80.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
Above 130,00080%80%72¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, just now80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Above 130,00080%Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Above 130,000
80%
80%
72¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, just now
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Above 130,000
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 130,000
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $6K
Above 140,00070%70%61¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, just now70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Above 140,00070%Kalshi 70%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Above 140,000
70%
70%
61¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, just now
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Above 140,000
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 140,000
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 150,00059%59%51¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, just now59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Above 150,00059%Kalshi 59%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Above 150,000
59%
59%
51¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, just now
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Above 150,000
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 150,000
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 160,00049%49%41¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, just now49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Above 160,00049%Kalshi 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Above 160,000
49%
49%
41¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, just now
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Above 160,000
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 160,000
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $4K
Above 170,00037%37%29¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, just now37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Above 170,00037%Kalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Above 170,000
37%
37%
29¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, just now
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Above 170,000
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 170,000
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $354
Above 180,00034%34%25¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, just now34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Above 180,00034%Kalshi 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 180,000
34%
34%
25¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, just now
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 180,000
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 180,000
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $27
Above 190,00022%22%21¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, just now29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Above 190,00022%Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Above 190,000
22%
22%
21¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, just now
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Above 190,000
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 190,000
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $609
Above 200,00014%14%13¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, just now21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Above 200,00014%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Above 200,000
14%
14%
13¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, just now
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Above 200,000
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 200,000
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $1
Above 210,00012.5%12.5%8¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, just now17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Above 210,00012.5%Kalshi 12.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 210,000
12.5%
12.5%
8¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, just now
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 210,000
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 210,000
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Above 220,0009%9%5¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, just now13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Above 220,0009%Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 220,000
9%
9%
5¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, just now
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 220,000
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 220,000
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Democratic Socialists of America
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 110,000
- Above 120,000
- Above 130,000
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How many DSA members will there be at the end of 2026?". Above 110,000 leads at 90.5%. Next is Above 120,000 at 80.5%. $14K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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