The Prediction Markets

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Closes
Jan 21, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$62K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Between 400 and 449 22.4%

Next is Between 350 and 399 at 19.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Between 400 and 449 22.4%Between 350 and 399 19.1%Between 450 and 499 17.9%Between 500 and 549 12.3%Between 550 and 599 6.3%7 others 22%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Between 400 and 449
22.4%
Kalshi 20%(22.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 400 and 449
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
22.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 350 and 399
19.1%
Kalshi 17%(19.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 350 and 399
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
19.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 450 and 499
17.9%
Kalshi 16%(17.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 450 and 499
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
17.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 500 and 549
12.3%
Kalshi 11%(12.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 500 and 549
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 550 and 599
6.3%
Kalshi 5.6%(6.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 550 and 599
Last price
5.6%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 300
5.9%
Kalshi 5.3%(5.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 300
Last price
5.3%
Fair, margin removed
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 300 and 349
4.8%
Kalshi 4.3%(4.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 300 and 349
Last price
4.3%
Fair, margin removed
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 600 and 649
2.6%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 600 and 649
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 700 and 749
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 700 and 749
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 750 and 800
2.2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 750 and 800
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 650 and 699
1.9%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 650 and 699
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Federal Register

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Between 400 and 449
  • Between 350 and 399
  • Between 450 and 499

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?". Between 400 and 449 leads at 22.4%. Next is Between 350 and 399 at 19.1%. $62K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 21, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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