The Prediction Markets

How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 1.2 million 99%

Next is At least 1.4 million at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 1.2 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1.2 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 1.4 million
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1.4 million
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 1.6 million
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1.6 million
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 1.7 million
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1.7 million
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 1.8 million
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1.8 million
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$822
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 1.9 million
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1.9 million
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2 million
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2 million
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2.1 million
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2.1 million
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2.2 million
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2.2 million
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2.4 million
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2.4 million
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2.6 million
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2.6 million
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: University of Florida Election Lab

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 1.2 million
  • At least 1.4 million
  • At least 1.6 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Florida mail votes will be cast?". At least 1.2 million leads at 99%. Next is At least 1.4 million at 97%. $12K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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