The Prediction Markets

How many Florida votes will be cast early in person?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

At least 2.2 million 92%

Next is At least 2.5 million at 75.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 2.2 million
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2.2 million
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2.5 million
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2.5 million
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2.8 million
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2.8 million
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$249
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3.1 million
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3.1 million
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$393
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3.4 million
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3.4 million
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3.7 million
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3.7 million
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4 million
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4 million
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: University of Florida Election Lab

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 2.2 million
  • At least 2.5 million
  • At least 2.8 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Florida votes will be cast early in person?". At least 2.2 million leads at 92%. Next is At least 2.5 million at 75.5%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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