The Prediction Markets

How many goals will Lionel Messi score during the 2027 MLS Sprint Season window?

Closes
Jun 1, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

3+ 94.8%

Next is 1+ at 93.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3+
94.8%
Polymarket 94.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
3+
Last price
94.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1+
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
1+
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
4+
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
4+
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket
6+
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
6+
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
10+
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
10+
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
5+
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
5+
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Polymarket
2+
67.8%
Polymarket 67.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
2+
Last price
67.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Polymarket
9+
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
9+
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
8+
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
8+
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
7+
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
7+
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
14+
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
14+
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Polymarket
17+
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
17+
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Polymarket
20+
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
20+
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Polymarket
11+
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
11+
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
18+
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
18+
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
15+
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
15+
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Polymarket
13+
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
13+
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
16+
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
16+
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
12+
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
12+
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
19+
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
19+
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3+
  • 1+
  • 4+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many goals will Lionel Messi score during the 2027 MLS Sprint Season window?". 3+ leads at 94.8%. Next is 1+ at 93.5%. $14K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of goals Lionel Messi scores between February 1, 2027 and May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This window covers the 2027 MLS Sprint Season, the abbreviated 14-match Major League Soccer regular season scheduled to run from February 2027 to May 2027, together with the 2027 MLS Cup Playoffs. Goals count only in official competitive matches: Major League Soccer league matches, domestic cup matches, continental and international club competitions, and competitive matches for the Argentina senior men's national team. Goals in friendly matches, exhibition matches, testimonials, and pre-season or mid-season tour matches do not count. Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. Own goals do not count toward the total. If Lionel Messi does not play in any match during this window, this market will resolve to "No". If it cannot be determined how many goals Lionel Messi scored by June 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer and the relevant competition organisers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets