The Prediction Markets

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$305K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

1-100 64.1%

Next is 1k-2.5k at 17.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1-100 64.1%1k-2.5k 17.3%100k 11.1%101-1k 4.5%2.5k-5k 1.4%3 others 1.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1-100
64.1%
Polymarket 68.7%(64.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $117 (1.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
1-100
Last price
68.7%
Fair, margin removed
64.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85.2¢
Sell Yes
52.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$117 (1.17x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
1k-2.5k
17.3%
Polymarket 18.6%(17.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $275 (2.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
1k-2.5k
Last price
18.6%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$275 (2.75x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
100k
11.1%
Polymarket 11.9%(11.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $532 (5.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
100k
Last price
11.9%
Fair, margin removed
11.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
101-1k
4.5%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
101-1k
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5k-5k
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5k-5k
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
10k-25k
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
10k-25k
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$119K
Trade this on Polymarket
25k-100k
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k-100k
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
5k-10k
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
5k-10k
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1-100
  • 1k-2.5k
  • 100k

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?". 1-100 leads at 64.1%. Next is 1k-2.5k at 17.3%. $305K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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