The Prediction Markets

How many government shutdowns in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$132K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

1 61.5%

Next is 2 at 50.9%. The venues differ most on 2 (Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 68%), a 36-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
1
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
2Arb
50.9%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
2
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 33¢ and selling on Kalshi at 61¢ nets 2800 bps before fees.

3Arb
20.2%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
3
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 1670 bps before fees.

4Arb
2.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

5+
1.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
5+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$860
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

0
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 2 on Polymarket at 33¢, sell on Kalshi at 61¢ (2800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of Management and Budget, United States Office of Personnel Management
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 1 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many government shutdowns in 2026?". 1 leads at 61.5%. Next is 2 at 50.9%. $132K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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