The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$3.6M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

234-237 16.7%

Next is Above 249 at 15.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

234-237 16.7%Above 249 15.8%230-233 14.9%238-241 13%242-245 9.3%7 others 30.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
234-237
16.7%
Kalshi 18%(16.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
234-237
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
16.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$229K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 249
15.8%
Kalshi 17%(15.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 249
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$720K
Trade this on Kalshi
230-233
14.9%
Kalshi 16%(14.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
230-233
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$234K
Trade this on Kalshi
238-241
13%
Kalshi 14%(13% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
238-241
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$229K
Trade this on Kalshi
242-245
9.3%
Kalshi 10%(9.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
242-245
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
9.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$223K
Trade this on Kalshi
226-229
7.6%
Kalshi 8.2%(7.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
226-229
Last price
8.2%
Fair, margin removed
7.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$215K
Trade this on Kalshi
246-249
7.1%
Kalshi 7.7%(7.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
246-249
Last price
7.7%
Fair, margin removed
7.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$255K
Trade this on Kalshi
222-225
4.5%
Kalshi 4.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
222-225
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$191K
Trade this on Kalshi
214-217
3.3%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
214-217
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$322K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 210
3%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 210
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$452K
Trade this on Kalshi
210-213
2.7%
Kalshi 2.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
210-213
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$279K
Trade this on Kalshi
218-221
2.1%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
218-221
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$228K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 234-237
  • Above 249
  • 230-233

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?". 234-237 leads at 16.7%. Next is Above 249 at 15.8%. $3.6M has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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