The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 10 15.7%

Next is 7 at 12.2%. The venues differ most on 6 (Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 16%), a 6.5-point gap.

Above 10 15.7%7 12.2%12+ 12.2%8 11.6%6 9.3%6 others 39%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 10
15.7%
Kalshi 20%(15.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
15.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Kalshi
7
12.2%
Polymarket 13.5%(11.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%(13.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
7
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
7
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

12+
12.2%
Polymarket 14%(12.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
12+
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8
11.6%
Polymarket 13.6%(11.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%(10.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
13.6%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
11.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
8
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
10.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

6
9.3%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%(12.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
6
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$860
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
6
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

4
9.2%
Polymarket 9.8%(8.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%(10.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
9.8%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10.3¢.

10
8.5%
Polymarket 10.1%(8.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%(7.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
10.1%
Fair, margin removed
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
10
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

5
7.8%
Polymarket 9.8%(8.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%(7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
9.8%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

9
6.9%
Polymarket 8.8%(7.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%(4.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
9
Last price
8.8%
Fair, margin removed
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
9
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

11
5.9%
Polymarket 6.8%(5.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
11
Last price
6.8%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below 4
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$578
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Florida Secretary of State
Show full rule comparison
  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 10
  • 7
  • 12+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 10 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?". Above 10 leads at 15.7%. Next is 7 at 12.2%. $19K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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