The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$52K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

5 40.3%

Next is 4 at 18.1%. The venues differ most on 6+ (Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 13%), a 8.5-point gap.

5 40.3%4 18.1%6+ 14.2%Above 7 10.7%3 9.9%2 others 6.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
5
40.3%
Polymarket 43.5%(37.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 46%(43.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
43.5%
Fair, margin removed
37.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
46%
Fair, margin removed
43.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 46¢.

4
18.1%
Polymarket 21%(18% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%(17.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
17.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

6+Arb
14.2%
Polymarket 21.5%(18.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%(12.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
6+
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23.3¢
Sell Yes
19.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$429 (4.29x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
6
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 19.7¢ nets 670 bps before fees.

Above 7
10.7%
Kalshi 11%(10.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
3
9.9%
Polymarket 11.5%(9.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
3
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

7
5.9%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
7
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
3
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below 3
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 6+ on Kalshi at 13¢, sell on Polymarket at 19.7¢ (670 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections
Show full rule comparison
  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5
  • 4
  • 6+

Live prices for 5

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?". 5 leads at 40.3%. Next is 4 at 18.1%. $52K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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